Saturday, June 16, 2018

Prediction on the Number of Pharmacists in US

According to the analysis, the number of pharmacists are growing by 6,521 annually. Currently (2017), there are 0.95 US pharmacists per 1000 US population. However, the number of pharmacists is expected to grow to be 1 pharmacists per 1000 population by year 2021. WHO recommends at least 1 pharmacist per 1000 population. According to the prediction analysis using simple regression, the number of pharmacists will grow to be 384,421 by year 2028, exceeding 1.08 pharmacists per 1000 population. Unless the number of prescriptions increases more than the number of population, pharmacists will have to find other sources of income than just traditional pharmacy practice. Hope pharmacists will be able to attain the healthcare provider status and be able to practice in other areas of healthcare. 

Graph-1 Growth of the Number of US Pharmacists


Graph-2 Prediction of the growth of US pharmacists number
Statistically significant at 99% Confidence Interval


Table-1 Analysis of Number of US Pharmacists
Year US Pharmacists US Population
Pharmacists per
1000 Population
2003 215,030 290,100,000 0.74123
2004 222,960 292,800,000 0.76148
2005 229,740 295,500,000 0.77746
2006 239,920 298,400,000 0.80402
2007 253,110 301,200,000 0.84034
2008 266,410 304,100,000 0.87606
2009 267,860 306,800,000 0.87308
2010 268,030 309,300,000 0.86657
2011 272,320 311,600,000 0.87394
2012 281,560 314,000,000 0.89669
2013 287,420 316,200,000 0.90898
2014 290,780 318,600,000 0.91268
2015 295,620 321,000,000 0.92093
2016 305,510 323,400,000 0.94468
2017 309,330 325,700,000 0.94974

Table-2 Number of US Pharmacists Prediction from 2018 to 2028
YearUS PharmacistsUS PopulationPharmacists per
1000 Population
2018319,209 328,885,714 0.97058
2019325,731 331,423,929 0.98282
2020332,252 333,962,143 0.99488
2021338,773 336,500,357 1.00675
2022 345,294 339,038,571 1.01845
2023351,815 341,576,786 1.02997
2024 358,337 344,115,000 1.04133
2025 364,858 346,653,214 1.05251
2026 371,379 349,191,429 1.06354
2027 377,900 351,729,643 1.07440
2028 384,421 354,267,857 1.08511
Statistically significant at 99% Confidence Interval

Regression Analysis
Number of US Pharmacists = - 12840528.93 +  6521.178*(Year)
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value
Intercept -12840528.93 637878.2 -20.1301 3.49994E-11
X Variable 1 6521.178571 317.3516 20.54875 2.69864E-11
t-value > 20
P-valve < 0.001
Statistically significant at 99% Confidence Interval

Source:
https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes291051.htm
https://www.statista.com/statistics/185723/number-of-pharmacists-in-the-us-since-2001/
https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=kf7tgg1uo9ude_&met_y=population&hl=en&dl=en
http://www.who.int/gho/health_workforce/pharmaceutical_density_text/en/

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